Preliminary modeling tool unveiled to predict sea level rise’s impacts on wetlands

SCCWRP and its partners have developed a preliminary computer modeling tool that enables coastal resources managers to predict how low-lying wetlands in Upper Newport Bay and the Tijuana River Estuary will be impacted by sea level rise.

The modeling tool, presented in preliminary form to the project’s advisory group in June, will predict how the trajectory of ecological impacts to wetlands in the coming decades could be altered by various potential management interventions. Seas are expected to rise anywhere from 1 to 8 feet over the next century.

The project’s Management and Technical Advisory Group (MTAG) provided input on which management scenarios should be evaluated using the model. Potential interventions include spreading sediment across the surface of wetlands to raise their elevation, and reducing stress on native plant and animal species by more aggressively controlling non-native species.

Researchers have begun modeling the ecological effect of these scenarios as the project enters its next phase.