Member agencies provide feedback to improve West Coast acidification model’s accuracy

SCCWRP’s member agencies provided feedback in June to a team of West Coast ocean modelers on how to assess uncertainty in a computer model that predicts how the region’s coastal waters will be affected by ocean acidification and hypoxia.

During an all-day CTAG intersessional workshop at SCCWRP, CTAG representatives and other interested stakeholders reacted to proposed approaches for comparing ocean observations to the model’s predictions, and for interpreting how marine organisms will be affected by changes in ocean chemistry that have been predicted by the model.

The modeling work involves coupling West Coast physical and biogeochemical ocean models together to understand the roles of global carbon dioxide emissions, natural upwelling processes, and nutrients introduced via wastewater effluent, stormwater runoff and atmospheric deposition in driving coastal ocean acidification and hypoxia. The model is being run with and without these pollution sources over a 10-year period.

Validating the model and reaching agreement on an approach to interpreting biological impacts are key steps in applying the model to quantify the impact of local pollution sources on acidification and hypoxia – a high-priority recommendation of California’s Ocean Acidification Action Plan.

SCCWRP will convene a follow-up meeting this fall to present preliminary modeling results that incorporate member agency feedback.