Toad distribution modeling completed for stream vulnerability study in San Diego

SCCWRP and its partners have completed development of a species distribution model for assessing the vulnerability of the endangered arroyo toad to future changes in stream flow patterns in the San Diego region.

The statistical model, completed in December, is being coupled to a hydrologic model that explains how climate change, future land-use changes and changing water management practices will change stream flow patterns across the San Diego region.

Together, the models predict how changes in stream flow patterns in the coming years are expected to affect critical arroyo toad habitat in the San Diego region.

Watershed managers will be able to use the insights as part of a risk decision framework for prioritizing which streams to protect and restore; the framework is expected to be completed this spring. The work builds off a similar 2019 environmental flows analysis in the Los Angeles region focusing on climate change impacts.