Workshop being planned on how to evaluate uncertainty for acidification modeling initiative

SCCWRP member agencies have begun planning a workshop to better understand how to evaluate uncertainty in a set of West Coast models that predicts how marine life could be adversely affected by ocean acidification and hypoxia (OAH).

The workshop – expected to take place this spring – will educate SCCWRP member agencies and San Francisco Bay Area stakeholders about a key aspect of this ongoing modeling work as a team of West Coast researchers begins using the models to estimate OAH’s intensifying effects on marine life, including what role, if any, land-based nutrient discharges play in exacerbating biological impacts.

Modeling uncertainty encompasses both the uncertainty associated with the West Coast physical-biogeochemical ocean models that were developed to estimate how OAH will intensify in the coming years, as well as the uncertainty associated with predicting how marine life will respond to the OAH conditions. The two types of uncertainty are closely interrelated.

The workshop, which is being planned in partnership with the San Francisco Estuary Institute, is expected to include a multi-part webinar series featuring national experts in quantifying model uncertainty.